I mean, progress is already getting slow in llm development space and their qwen models are, well, good enough for time being. Meanwhile, its good for the world that they are working on their own chips, that way nVidia will have to stop being comfortable.

This is step in good direction for everyone except nvidia and its chinese distribution network

They have more electric power (also cheaper), more data centers. I bet AI development will be slower elsewhere.

Yup - at some level of scale it's very much an infrastructure game.

No amount of trade war politics will make up for a lack in infrastructure investment.

In 24 months, US hyperscalers will be training models on GPUs/XPUs with 16A process technology and HBM4E. The gap between the raw processing power of US and Chinese AI hardware will be widening.

I wish I had your confidence being able to forecast 24 months ahead. In 24 months TSMC could be a smoking crater.

There won’t be 16A manufacturing here in the USA.

Probably ever.

We live in extremely dangerous uncertain times.

Any forecast that long is worthless.

You seem extremely pessimistic. TSMC SoW-X will put an entire wafer worth of chips on a single substrate and be incredibly fast.

https://wccftech.com/tsmc-cutting-edge-sow-x-packaging-set-f...

Why would you say 16A would never be manufactured in the United States? It is of course TSMC’s plan of record.