Solar overcapacity is really cheap, because panels are really cheap. Dedicated seasonal energy storage technology doesn't even exist right now, much less economically efficient storage technology. The closest thing would be a massive thermal store used for district heating, but only prototypes are starting right now. Industrial scaling and mass deployment? That's a decade+ away at a minimum.
We could build seasonal overcapacity today, and it would be nearly economically competitive with existing fossil sources.
It's hard to internalize just how cheap solar panels have become. Keeping the same inverter and grid connection, and doubling the panel capacity, nowhere near doubles the cost of the install.
Indeed. Solar overcapacity can be used to produce green hydrogen for industrial uses (high heat), green ammonia (fertilizer), etc. Ammonia has supply chains and is known quantity to ship and store. Could be used in fuel cells. Of course, the efficiency is low, but thats a necessary cost for seasonal storage.
Australia has so much land. And sunny everywhere. I'm sure Europe will buy green ammonia or fertilizer to meet their carbon goals. And green mining/metals/refining using hydrogen.
I think we are headed to an era of energy abundance such that the question won't be "how can we use these MWh that would otherwise go to waste" but rather "how can we make sure that these electrolyzers for hydrogen are never idle." Meaning that the capital cost of nearly every process will be far higher than the cost of powering the capital with energy.
Unfortunately, we aren't there yet. Whyalla Steelworks was intended to produce "green steel" using hydrogen. The project began around 2022 and was cancelled in 2025 (timelines weren't met, financial troubles). Port Bonython Hydrogen hub studies its commitment to responsible development. I guess it means that not much is going on there right now.
We could build seasonal overcapacity today, and it would be nearly economically competitive with existing fossil sources.
It's hard to internalize just how cheap solar panels have become. Keeping the same inverter and grid connection, and doubling the panel capacity, nowhere near doubles the cost of the install.