It is obviously too early for any of this. Technologist have a highly distorted view of the overall economy. Most things just don't move that fast outside of information technology.
I routinely talk to people at my current non-tech job who don't even know what Claude is.
Technologist talk about tokenmaxxing while I can't imagine more than 10% of the non-tech workforce could even explain what a token is.
This level of automation is going to have an extremely slow roll out because of regulatory and sociological reasons.
There is no equivalent to the contagion of AI coding agents outside of programming. I am still fighting just to get access to Claude Cowork at work. I have quite a few automation ideas but there is not much in it for my manager. They have to sign off on something they don't understand with the best outcome their department shrinks. I can understand from their perspective, the status quo is perfectly fine. The risk is long term to the whole business not being competitive but neither my manager or I will be at this company by the time that materializes.
There is this cultural sorting function too that if you don't like change you probably don't work in tech. The culture that creates is night and day different to the non-technology workforce culture. Most people outside technology hate change. Time and time again, I have seen that even the most simple and obvious changes don't get made, even if it makes the task easier because of this bias against change.
Yeah I do think too but there are now effects going against this typical pattern:
Agentic AI Layer: moving more knowledge into the software stack itself will reduce the amount of people you need for 'software'.
And the second thing: We are now in a time of commoditisation: Everything which isn't optimized becomes optimized. That small company not being efficient at all? Another young person with automatisation / ai in mind will try to disrupt that market because we are so saturated.
With white collar job people getting dispersed, will lead to more pressure on blue collar
I routinely talk to people at my current non-tech job who don't even know what Claude is.
Technologist talk about tokenmaxxing while I can't imagine more than 10% of the non-tech workforce could even explain what a token is.
This level of automation is going to have an extremely slow roll out because of regulatory and sociological reasons.
There is no equivalent to the contagion of AI coding agents outside of programming. I am still fighting just to get access to Claude Cowork at work. I have quite a few automation ideas but there is not much in it for my manager. They have to sign off on something they don't understand with the best outcome their department shrinks. I can understand from their perspective, the status quo is perfectly fine. The risk is long term to the whole business not being competitive but neither my manager or I will be at this company by the time that materializes.
There is this cultural sorting function too that if you don't like change you probably don't work in tech. The culture that creates is night and day different to the non-technology workforce culture. Most people outside technology hate change. Time and time again, I have seen that even the most simple and obvious changes don't get made, even if it makes the task easier because of this bias against change.